The Legacy Perspective - April 2024
by Steve Wachs, CFP®
Scattershooting While Watching The Totality From Above
For those who have lived in DFW for a while, you may remember the days of the Dallas Times Herald and Blackie Sherrod. He was a legendary sportswriter with a classic line of “scattershooting while wondering.” This perspective will scattershoot from my recent trip to New York City for a wealth management conference hosted by JP Morgan.
Flew out at 1 PM on Monday, April 8th from DFW. By around 1:30, both the plane cabin and the sky outside were dark just as if was taking an overnight red-eye flight. This picture from my window seat tries to capture the amazing experience of seeing the totality eclipse from above the clouds.
Dr. Robert Gates was the Secretary of Defense under both a Republican and Democratic president – don't think that will happen in today’s environment. The outlook for Russia/Ukraine conflict is “quite dire.” Putin feels like he has the wind at his back. No empty grocery shelves for the people of Russia because of China, and plenty of government money from the sale of oil to India and China. Putin will not give up his objective. The best that can be hoped for is a stalemate. He will only leave office “feet first“ and unfortunately could be replaced by someone even more hardline. Leadership lessons from Gates 1) having a sense of humor - Nixon and Carter had none. 2) A cold martini at home in the evening also helps.
We like to think we have never had this much political divide in history. Here’s a picture I took at the conference of the actual Hamilton/Burr dueling pistols. Seems like conflict existed then.
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase spoke. Geopolitics are currently the biggest threat. The economy is booming. Inflation could be higher for longer. This would result in interest rates staying higher. He believes there is a 60% to 70% chance of something other than an economic “soft landing” in 2025. Good leaders "don't trust bullshitters because it is “very easy for BS'ers to BS." The United States is still the “beacon of light" to the world. The biggest economic tail risk is stagflation.
Scattershooting while wondering why “Don’t Walk" signs in New York City seem to be just suggestions.
Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and investment Strategy, for JPMorgan, sees exciting potential for the use of AI in drug development. The manufacturing of computer chips is a big deal. He could see a blockade of Taiwan by China within the next 3 to 5 years. He wonders where all the energy that is required for chip manufacturing and data centers will come from.
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist of JP Morgan, believes CPI will continue to trend down as the “shelter“ component of inflation declines. He shared a fascinating chart showing investor returns when investing in the equity markets at various all-time highs. The graph shows “all-time highs set a floor. “ Bottom line -the best time to invest is when you have the money,
The final speaker was Mark Messier, seven-time Stanley Cup champion and hockey Hall of Famer. From his book No One Wins Alone, a team is different than a group. You don’t sacrifice for a group. You don’t win one for the group. You do what is necessary for a team to win.
Yes, we are Legacy Consulting Group, but we are a team of eight that works together to help our clients be victorious in accomplishing their goals.
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Information presented is believed to be current. It should not be viewed as personalized investment advice. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors on the date of publication and may change in response to market conditions. You should consult with a professional advisor before implementing any strategies discussed.
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